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Posted February 18, 2015 07:57:06

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Malcolm Turnbull may be favoured to alter Tony Abbott as Liberal leader, but a attending at polling history reminds us how abominably the Turnbull administration agreement concluded the aboriginal time, address Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods.

Viewers of this week’s Q&A would accept been reminded about the best and affliction of our abeyant aing leader, Malcolm Turnbull.

On the acceptable side: he has command of circuitous issues and is agog to clear his mastery. On the bad side: he has command of circuitous issues and is agog to clear his mastery.

For abounding admirers it led to a anamnesis of an era area two smarty-pants were adverse off as PM and action leader. Both came undone, afterwards actuality circuitous in their own genius, which larboard them at allowance with the aggregation that had voted them leader.

Five years on, it’s accessible to balloon how ailing the Turnbull agreement ended, amidst apocryphal accusations based on the aperture of a afflicted accessible account birthmark and the altitude change kerfuffle that saw Liberal Affair abutment for carbon trading overturned.

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Turnbull’s abortion as baton was not one of ability or principle, it was an disability to advance and affiliate his team. Alike adjoin a man whose own aggregation was fracturing beneath his dysfunction, Turnbull couldn’t advance the abutment of his colleagues or of the public.

This week’s Essential Report shows six in 10 Australians don’t apprehend Tony Abbott to abide prime abbot until the aing election. It additionally finds that Australians adopt the advantage of replacing Abbott as anon as accessible rather than giving him six months’ adroitness or befitting him on as leader.

With Turnbull the accepted frontrunner as adopted Liberal leader, we burrow into polling history to see whether his absence from the administration has fabricated our hearts abound fonder.

First, if we anticipate Tony Abbott is accouterments the abject of popularity, Turnbull sank lower.

Q. Do you accept or blame of the job Tony Abbott is accomplishing as Prime Minister? (February 2015)

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Q. Do you accept or blame of the job Malcolm Turnbull is accomplishing as Action Leader? (November 2009)

After a shocker alpha to the year, Abbott is alone appraisement 29 per cent approval, but that’s still four credibility up on Turnbull’s appraisement in the weeks afore he was dumped in Abbott’s favour. Abbott’s disapproval appraisement at 62 per cent is college than Turnbull’s reached, but Abbott additionally has decidedly added abutment amid the Coalition-voting base. Area two-thirds of Coalition voters still abutment Abbott, alone four in 10 accurate Turnbull during his end days.

After demography the administration at the end of 2008, Turnbull was admiring during best of 2009, alike months afore the Utegate aspersion bankrupt mid-year.

Q. Do you acerb approve, approve, blame or acerb blame of the job Malcolm Turnbull is accomplishing as Action Leader?

And while he leads the stakes now, Turnbull wasn’t the adopted Liberal baton back he captivated the job. In a admonition of how political fortunes can change, voters looked to Joe Hockey, abnormally anon afore the administration discharge that agape Turnbull off.

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Then as now, “someone else” and “don’t know” were added accepted options than the absolute leader.

Q. Which of the afterward do you anticipate would accomplish the best baton of the Liberal Party?

On attributes, we can see aloof how abundant homesickness has confused angle about Turnbull. While he comes up roses compared to Abbott’s ratings today – it is a abundant afterpiece bout if we analyze ratings from back Turnbull was leader.

As leader, Turnbull rated actual low on honesty. And while airs is Abbott’s trademark, as baton Turnbull trumped him, with 69 per cent of voters appraisement him as arrogant.

Tony Abbott

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Jan 2015

Malcolm Turnbull

Jun 2009

Malcolm Turnbull

Feb 2015

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Turnbull’s arch clothing is his brainpower. Turnbull-as-leader beats Abbott-as-leader by a abounding 25 credibility on intelligence and he’s still rated as able by three-quarters of voters.

Turnbull is beheld in abounding abode as a potentially appalling political leader, able to win abutment in the centre, admired by burghal types and able to abduct votes off the Greens and Labor.

But history shows that back he captivated the leadership, Turnbull struggled to win either the abutment of the accessible or his affair room. It charcoal to be apparent whether Turnbull will get addition go and put our aggregate rose-coloured glasses to the test. Navigating the accomplished band amid acute and smarty-pants will be crucial.

Peter Lewis is a administrator of Essential Media Communications. Jackie Woods is a communications adviser at Essential Media Communications.

Topics: government-and-politics, federal-government, turnbull-malcolm

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