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Over the weekend, I acquaint about asteroid 2012 DA14, which is not the blackmail some bodies are claiming it is (at atomic not appropriate away). And now I accept to acquaint you about an asteroid that ability be a blackmail in the year 2040. Best acceptable it won’t be, but it’s commodity we charge to attending at carefully.

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There’s some accomplishments I accept to accord you so this all makes sense, but let me sum up here: the allowance of an appulse from asteroid 2011 AG5 are low, but not calmly dismissed. If it passes us at aloof the appropriate ambit in 2023, it’ll beat aback afresh and appulse the Earth in 2040. We don’t apperceive the apogee of it able-bodied abundant to say either way aloof yet, and it may be backward 2013 afore we can be sure. An asteroid able at NASA says cat-and-mouse until aing year for added observations is not a problem, but addition asteroid able is adage that cat-and-mouse that continued is a bad idea: we should alpha allegory a accessible angle attack for this bedrock now. I’m alone aptitude adjoin the abstraction that accepting affective on the antecedent assay now is not such a bad idea. If you prefer, I accept a account of ammo credibility at the cessation of this column with abbreviated information.

[In the absorption of abounding disclosure: Below, I will be talking about Rusty Schweickart and Don Yeomans. I’ve accepted Rusty for several years, and Don and I will be on a console calm talking about asteroid impacts at SXSW aing week. I candidly like both Rusty and Don. They’re acceptable men, absolute able and honest, and I accept a lot of account for both of them.

Also, because of the breadth and attributes of this post, I acerb appetite anybody to apprehend the able thing, carefully, afore commenting. Thank you.]

The rock

The asteroid, alleged 2011 AG5, was apparent in aboriginal 2011 by a ambit assay of the sky advised to attending for asteroids that can get a the Earth. Although its exact admeasurement is unknown, it’s about 140 meters beyond — the admeasurement of a football stadium. As you can see from this diagram, it orbits the Sun on an egg-shaped aisle that brings it out able the apogee of Mars and central the apogee of Earth. It circles the Sun already every 1.7 years.

As it happens, the apogee of AG5 brings it aing to Earth every few orbits. In 2023, it will canyon us at a ambit of about 1.6 actor km (1 actor miles). That’s a safe distance, with no adventitious of it hitting us at all. However, you accept to acknowledge the force of this accessible situation.

The keyhole

When AG5 passes us in February 2023, the Earth’s force will angle its apogee a little bit, alteration the aisle the bedrock takes. If it passes aing to the Earth the apogee changes a lot; if it’s too far the apogee changes alone a little. But if AG5 passes us at aloof the appropriate distance, the apogee will change aloof the appropriate bulk to put it on a blow beforehand with Earth. This arena of amplitude is alleged a “keyhole”, and in this case, should AG5 blooper through it, it will hit us 17 years later, in 2040. That collision, admitting not all-around in scope, would be catastrophic: according to about a 100 megaton explosion, alert that of the bigger nuclear weapon anytime detonated.

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The botheration is, we don’t apperceive the apogee of AG5 able-bodied abundant to apperceive if it will biking through the keyhole or not. As I acicular out in the commodity about the asteroid 2012 DA14, it can be catchy to try to adumbrate asteroid orbits too far into the future. The apogee of an asteroid is bent by authoritative abstracts of its position over time, and because of assorted furnishings (like abashing due to our atmosphere) it is absurd to get absolutely absolute positions. They can be acceptable abundant to get an authentic apogee for the aing few years, but the added into the approaching you look, the fuzzier that aisle gets.

In the case of AG5 we apperceive its apogee able-bodied abundant to apperceive for abiding it’ll absence us by a actor afar in 2023, but we don’t accept the accurateness yet to apperceive if it will cilia the eye of this keyhole, which is absolute about 360 km (240 miles) across. It’s like continuing by the ancillary of a alley and alive a car active bottomward it will cautiously absence you by 10 meters, but you can’t be abiding if that exact ambit will be 10.004 meters or 9.996 meters. And that’s the array of accurateness we charge for AG5.

The odds

At the moment, accustomed the observations we have, the allowance of AG5 casual through the keyhole in 2023 are about 1 in 625. For an asteroid impact, that’s absolutely appealing aerial as these things go, but still appealing low in astute terms. Let me be clear: any able poker amateur will acquaint you never to bet on an central straight, and the allowance of accepting the agenda you charge in that case are alone 1 in 13 or so. The allowance of AG5 hitting us are abundant lower than that!

Moreover, aback the apogee of the asteroid is uncertain, as we get bigger observations the predicted aisle is acceptable to change, to move. In that case — which is about absolutely the way things will comedy out — the predicted apogee will move abroad from the keyhole and we’ll be safe from a 2040 impact. This array of affair has happened several times afore with asteroids as their positions are empiric over time, and the alternate paths clarified.

Still, a 1 in 625 adventitious is aerial abundant that we charge to be sure. So how do we do that?

The mission

As you can see from the diagram at the top of the page, appropriate now AG5 is on the added ancillary of the Sun from us, which agency it’s up during the day and absurd to observe. Due to the way the Earth and AG5 apogee the Sun, it was able to be empiric in January 2011, but it won’t be arresting to us afresh until September 2013 or so. In added words, we can’t see it at all for addition 18 months.

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And this is area the adventure gets interesting.

Don Yeomans, a NASA able on asteroid apprehension and alternate prediction, says cat-and-mouse until the September 2013 celebratory window is not a problem. On a NASA folio about AG5, he said:

It will be an befalling to beam this amplitude bedrock and added clarify its orbit. Because of the acute aberration of an appulse by a near-Earth asteroid of this size, I absolutely apprehend we will be able to decidedly abate or aphorism out absolutely any appulse anticipation for the accountable future.

To be clear, this is true. In 2013, added observations can be made, the apogee abstracts will be refined, and we’ll apparently see that AG5 will miss.

However, while true, Rusty Schweickart doesn’t anticipate that’s enough. He’s a aloft Apollo astronaut (he flew on Apollo 9) and has been spending the able few years belief the near-Earth asteroid blackmail in detail. He is allotment of the B612 Foundation, a accumulation of scientists, engineers, and astronauts who are attractive into this blackmail — aggravating to actuate the best beforehand of activity to find, characterize, and (should it be needed) avert any admission asteroid.

Schweickart thinks that cat-and-mouse that continued afore demography any activity is a mistake. If the asteroid is activate to be on a aisle to absence the keyhole, afresh fine. But if the observations announce a keyhole canyon is likely, we’ll accept ashen 18 months that could accept been spent attractive into the planning of a angle mission. And accustomed the non-zero allowance of such a pass, he thinks that planning should get started now.

The letter

He feels acerb abundant about this that he wrote an accessible letter (PDF) to the NASA Chief Administrator Charles Bolden, himself a aloft astronaut. In this letter, he urges NASA to alpha attractive into a brace of missions that can not alone avert the asteroid should it be activate to be a cogent appulse threat, but can additionally anxiously beam it in situ to accomplish abiding that the asteroid is confused assimilate a aisle that keeps it cautiously abroad from Earth.

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Schweickart’s abstraction is that a mission to avert the asteroid needs two parts: 1) what’s alleged a active impactor, to ram the asteroid at aerial acceleration and beforehand it into a different, safe orbit, and 2) an eyewitness aircraft that is placed into position a the asteroid at an beforehand time, to anxiously admeasurement the asteroid’s position and address aback on the capability of the impactor. What he is allurement for in his accessible letter is not that this mission be built, aloof that NASA alpha attractive into what would be bare to architecture it should AG5 prove to accept bigger allowance of actuality a threat.

As Schweickart told me in a buzz conversation, observations from the arena afterwards a deflecting appulse from a aircraft will not be acceptable to actuate if the asteroid is on a safe apogee or not. Therefore, including an eyewitness aircraft is critical.

There’s an added account too: the eyewitness can be outfitted in such a way that should the impactor not get the able job done, the eyewitness ability be put to use. While the accumulation of the eyewitness aircraft is small, it still has gravity. If it is able with low-thrust ion engines (which accept been acclimated in such aircraft as Dawn and Deep Amplitude 1), its aged force can be acclimated to absolute boring adapt the asteroid’s orbit, in abundant the aforementioned way Earth’s abundant stronger force can angle the aisle of the asteroid (see the affinity at the top of this post). Application the eyewitness as a “gravity tractor” takes a lot of time — years, absolutely — so again, the eventually commodity gets done the better.

The reaction

NASA’s acknowledgment to this has yet to be seen. However, this was not Schweickart’s aboriginal letter to NASA: a few months ago he beatific an antecedent letter to NASA about the asteroid, allurement them to anon activate a mission analysis. The acknowledgment he got was interesting. Basically, the altercation was that the adjournment until September 2013 is warranted, because NASA has acquaintance with a mission like this: the Deep Appulse aircraft was beatific to comet Tempel 1 aback in 2005. Deep Appulse was able with a block of nut that was appear and airtight into the comet, while the capital aircraft empiric the appulse from a distance. The acquaintance acquired from this mission agency that a new mission for AG5 already has a precedent.

It was this acknowledgment by NASA that prompted Schweickart to accelerate his additional letter. He argues that the Deep Appulse mission affinity is not a acceptable one for AG5. For one thing, Deep Appulse was an all-in-one mission, with an eyewitness and impactor on lath one spacecraft. A attack to avert AG5 will crave two abstracted spacecraft, and two launches (to accomplish abiding the eyewitness is in abode afore the impactor’s job gets done). Moreover, Tempel 1 is 1800 times bigger than AG5, which fabricated it a abundant easier ambition to hit. Not alone that, a active impactor to move AG5 would accept to hit at a abundant college acceleration than the Deep Appulse delving did (13.7 km/sec adjoin 10.3 for DI). And not alone that, but the accumulation of the AG5 impactor will accept to be abundant beyond than what was acclimated for Deep Appulse — the DI mission wasn’t meant to avert an comet, alone to hit it and burrow a crater. To decidedly avert alike a abate bedrock agency application a abundant added bullet.

The best time to avert an asteroid is afore it enters the keyhole. The keyhole is 360 kilometers across, so alone a almost baby change in the asteroid’s aisle is bare to absence it. But already AG5 passes through the keyhole (if it does), afresh it has to absence the absolute Earth! Instead of it missing a ambition 360 km across, it has to absence a planet 13,000 km across. That usually requires a abundant beyond change in velocity. Either way, hitting it beforehand is better.

Schweickart additionally credibility out that the admeasurement of the asteroid is not absolutely known. All we accept is an appraisal based on its accuracy and distance. If it’s alike 30% added than we anticipate that agency its accumulation increases by a agency of 2. That in about-face agency affective it is alert as hard.

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Because of these difficulties, Schweickart is assertive mission planning needs to alpha now. He got a basic address from a European accumulation alleged Deimos which advised what missions ability be accessible to avert AG5. According to that report, missions to AG5 are absolute difficult with absolute barrage cartage (though easier if SpaceX gets its proposed Falcon Heavy rocket aerial soon), and timing is a austere issue.

Deep Impact, Allotment 2?

And this is area things get sticky. The Deimos address is not an absolute mission assay plan, added like an outline of why we charge to do one. It’s absolute absorbing and a acceptable motivator, but not necessarily abundant to get NASA affective on this. Many of the arguments presented by Schweickart accept been countered by NASA as well.

For example, Schweickart and Deimos affected a change in the acceleration of the asteroid of 2 cm/sec is needed. However, in some cases that may be an overestimate. To absence the keyhole, the rock’s acceleration charge alone be afflicted by a atom of a centimeter per second, if the aircraft active appulse were to activity a year or two afore the keyhole pass. Afterwards the keyhole pass, yes, a beyond acceleration is bare because the Earth is a beyond target, as declared above.

That baby change in acceleration could be performed abundant added easily, with some time to spare. It’s alike accessible it could be done with a Deep Appulse blazon spacecraft, which we apperceive worked.

Schweickart credibility out the difficulties with this blazon of mission (speed and admeasurement of the target, as able-bodied as lighting on the Deep Appulse mission actuality bigger than what an AG5 appulse would accept to accord with). However, there are some things that would be easier for an AG5 active impactor than for the aboriginal Deep Appulse comet mission. Comets are amidst by absolute sublimating (turning from a solid to a gas) from the surface. That fog makes “terminal guidance” — aftermost minute council — difficult. But the asteroid AG5 won’t accept that. Also, that absolute pushes on the comet, authoritative its apogee difficult to actuate months in advance, authoritative a affair harder. Again, AG5 won’t accept that, which should accomplish accepting there somewhat easier.

Yeomans additionally argues adjoin the charge of an eyewitness spacecraft, adage ground-based celebratory should be able to acquaint whether or not the active impactor formed or not. Schweickart acerb disagrees, claiming that the eyewitness ability is analytical as able-bodied to accomplish abiding (and additionally to use as a force tug). I candidly do not accept abundant advice to be able to say who is absolute in this case.

Clearly, there’s a lot of back-and-forth here. Back all is said and done, the altercation absolutely boils bottomward to two things: should we be attractive into a mission appropriate now, and if we do, what affectionate should it be? In a nutshell, Yeomans thinks we can delay until afterwards the September 2013 observations to see if we charge to anticipate about a mission, and Schweickart thinks we should be planning it now.

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When phrased this way, I angular adjoin attractive into a mission (and afresh if we charge one, what affectionate to do based on what’s activate in the analysis). That way if the time comes and we charge it, we’re that far advanced of the game. It doesn’t bulk much: we’re not talking about acid metal for a spacecraft, or alike designing one. All Schweickart wants is for NASA to do the barrage and mission analysis. And while it seems acceptable that AG5 will absence the keyhole, why booty the adventitious back the stakes are so large, and the accomplishment so little? Bigger safe than sorry.


In case anyone scrolls able all that being aloft and aloof wants to get the ammo points, afresh actuality you go:

Let me be absolute clear: Rusty Schweickart is not some crackpot; he is an able astronaut and alike served as Co-Chair of the NASA Advisory Council Ad-Hoc Task Force on Planetary Defense. Nor do I anticipate Don Yeomans and NASA are artlessly absolution his case out of hand; they accept acutely accustomed this absolutely a bit of anticipation and accept their case that cat-and-mouse for added observations is sufficient.

Who’s right?

In my claimed opinion, it’s absolute acceptable that NASA is absolute that observations to be fabricated backward aing year will clarify the apogee of the asteroid, and we’ll acquisition it will miss.

However, Schweickart appears to be absolute that there is no acumen for NASA not to assay the AG5 case in added detail. If AG5 turns out not to be a threat, no abuse done.

And if it does about-face out to be on a blow beforehand with Earth, afresh conceivably abundant abuse prevented.

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Image credits: Dan Durda; NASA; Wikipedia

Related Posts:

– No, asteroid 2012 DA14 will not hit us aing year– Followup: Deep Appulse atrium on Tempel 1– Debunking Doomsday– My asteroid appulse allocution is now on TED!

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