Ten Things That Happen When You Are In Offshore Oil And Gas Process Flow Diagram | Offshore Oil And Gas Process Flow Diagram

GoM C&C assembly for July by BOEM was 1746 kbpd and by EIA 1761, compared with, respectively, 1631 and 1634 kbpd (corrected) in June. The EIA cardinal is a new peak, the BOEM one is still 24 kbpd abbreviate of their March numbers. The advance was from Thunder Horse (partially), Constitution and Baldpate/Salsa (which is mostly gas) advancing aback on-line, added connected ramp-up in Stones and Marmalard.

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Gas treating | ExxonMobil Chemical – offshore oil and gas process flow diagram | offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

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C&C Assembly Details

For new fields added aback backward 2014, abstracts for Tubular Bell’s, which has not been accessible aback backward 2016, has been adapted and shows a advance of about 14 kbpd in that period, appropriately there is now a slight continuing acceleration apparent in new charter assembly over the accomplished six months, rather than the antecedent plateau; Tubular Bells looks like it is now on plateau, about 40 percent beneath its nameplate, and there is no accepted drilling.

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Dalmatian North (online in March 2014) and Dalmatian South (online in December 2015) are baby oil fields, which are not assuming actual able-bodied and ability able-bodied go off band soon. At the moment it looks like their assembly is cycled every three or four months. Subsea pumping is due to be installed for them in backward 2018.

Heidelberg and Marmalard attending to be about at their accepted amount (Heidelberg is alone about 50 percent of ability nameplate but I anticipate added would accept to appear from added tie-backs and I don’t see any conduct for that at the moment). Julia is the one analytic sized contempo accession that is still beneath nameplate and has accepted drilling, so could add addition 15 kbpd, but with accelerated abatement in the aboriginal year based on the aboriginal able-bodied (it has subsea pumping installed but I don’t apperceive how abundant that improves things). Stones is aloof about at accepted accommodation afterwards what looks like absolutely a difficult start-up over about twelve months, but sometimes accessories can accomplish college ante aboriginal on, admitting I don’t apperceive how connected the approval activity takes in the GoM to go higher.

The baptize cut on the new fields looks like it’s starting to edge up, a accessible assurance that the assembly is plateauing. Of all the new leases started aback 2015 alone one in Tubular Bells and three in Abundant White accept burden abutment from baptize bang wells (though Jack has accouterment to add it later). I anticipate the added leases mostly await on burden depletion, with some fractional aquifer drive or compaction drive support, which agency that unless they are apprenticed by apparent accessories and accept to be afraid backed, and I don’t anticipate abounding are as the accessories are about operating beneath nameplate capacity, they will continuously abatement unless new assembly wells are added. There are some earlier leases aural the fields apparent additionally with baptize injection, for Holstein, Mars-Ursa and King, but all-embracing best of the assembly apparent is acceptable now to alpha to appearance accretion abatement ante as development conduct apprehension down, and as is already axiomatic in a lot of the abate fields.

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Process Flow Diagram Gas Plant – ~ Wiring Diagram Portal ~ • – offshore oil and gas process flow diagram | offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

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Thunder Horse was aback online for best of July afterward a abiding turnaround. There is still conduct there so there may be some added assembly to appear from South Thunder Horse. Atlantis additionally has a lot of activity, possibly for North Atlantis start-up aing year.

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The Constitution Spar additionally came aback on-line afterwards a connected about-face around. I’m not abiding if there is any added to some in the Chevron leases produced through Tahiti, but there has been cogent advance there over the accomplished year (it was started in 2009 and a added archetypal assembly ability would be advancing of plateau about now).

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The abysmal complete fields abide a accepted abatement at 15 to 20 percent y-o-y. The baptize cut has beneath a bit, possibly as some of the earlier wells baptize out and are shut in.

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Oil Refinery Diagram | Refinery Process Flow Diagram | $$-TEXAS TEA .. | offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

The bank wells appearance abiding decline, agenda about that there is missing abstracts for July, and allegedly a bit in June.

Hurricanes and Added Unplanned Outages

Thunder Horse was shut bottomward and absolutely abandoned afterward a ability abortion mid-September. That is a appealing aloft agitated and shouldn’t appear (it would, in theory, crave at atomic two absolute failures), and would booty a few canicule to acquisition and actual the botheration and get permission to restart. I wouldn’t be afraid if it was accompanying to antecedent evacuations for hurricanes. Thunder Horse produces about 180 kbpd.

The estimates for blow accompanying absent assembly were 84 kbpd (average over the month) for August and 60 kbpd for September – the Thunder Horse electrical abeyance ability add addition 20 kbpd to that. There may be some accustomed abatement to add as well. On the added hand, Thunder Horse was not at abounding accommodation in the July figures, so could add addition 40 kbpd aback it assuredly gets there.

For accustomed abatement ante the complete deep-water fields are bottomward aloof beneath 80 kbpd per year and bank fields about 40 kbpd per year, so maybe 10 kbpd per ages overall. The new fields and the BP and Tahiti accompanying fields additionally accept accustomed abatement on abounding of their wells but it is actuality covered by ramp-up of new fields and in-fill development wells. However, both those sources are starting to affluence off so the all-embracing abatement amount will alpha to climb, eventually to as aerial as 20 to 25 percent based on R/P numbers.

Overall then, there is acceptable to be a slight abatement apparent in the aing brace of letters for August and September, but not as affecting as the blow account ability accept suggested. However, the appulse from Nate in October, added a bit from the shut-ins on Delta House afterward the subsea aqueduct abortion and consecutive leak, will be added significant, about 300 kbpd on average, and with some knock-on appulse into November and afterwards because of the conduct rig outages and depending on how abundant of, and for how connected Delta House assembly is lost. I will allegedly not put calm addition amend until the November abstracts appear out as it will be difficult to acquaint what is blow on alone fields accustomed the assorted abeyance and restart disruptions, but it will be absorbing to see what EIA do with their STEO predictions.

Natural Gas Production

Most gas assembly is associated gas and is in apathetic abatement from a bounded aiguille in 2015 (note this was about 80 percent lower than the capital aiguille in the 90’s aback there were still ample gas fields in operation). Best gas comes from the capital abysmal baptize areas: GB – Garden Banks, GC – Green Canyon, MC – Mississippi Canyon, and KC – Keathley Canyon. The attenuate curve on the top of the blueprint are mostly bank charter areas and are in abrupt abatement at over 20 percent y-o-y. As oil abatement picks up so will the all-embracing gas decline.

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Oil  - offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

Oil – offshore oil and gas process flow diagram | offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

The new fields gas assembly is now assuming bright signs of decline, mainly advancing from Hadrian South (the alone recent, ample accustomed gas acreage that’s appear on line, but with R/P of alone a brace of years based on actual affluence from January 2016 at nameplate capacity, so apprenticed to abatement fast at some time).

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Recent Conduct and Leasing Activity

By the BSEE address for the aftermost anniversary of September there were 41 GoM able-bodied accompanying activities in progress. Alone two bearding wells, advertence wildcats or appraisal, were actuality drilled: one, by BHP is Scimitar in GC 392 (which follows an appear oil appearance in Wilding-2 in a adjacent block – Wilding-1 had a automated abortion and had to be re-drilled); and one by Shell in WR 376. There are two P&A operations, eleven rigs alive accoutrement through wireline or coiled tubing, and twenty-nine alive conduct rigs (including three predrilling for Stampede, Mad Dog II and Appomattox).

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Total and Chevron accept entered into an acceding to assignment eight a acreage analysis wells about the Anchor and Appomatox discoveries. The aboriginal was spudded in July on the Ballymore anticipation (MC 607), which is listed adjoin the East Anstey field, so may not calculation as a accurate wildcat.

There were no new discoveries, start-ups or charter abilities in September. One bearing charter expired: Dalmatian, a baby gas acreage started in March 2014; it had produced 30bcf and 0.15 mmbbls.

Recent Business Decisions

There has been one audible FID accommodation in September for Buckskin. That will be angry in to Lucius, which would advance there are no expectations that the charter there that was dead off in a brace of years with aerial baptize cut will be recovering. Buckskin will use two 8” flowlines. I haven’t apparent accepted assembly but I’d assumption about 20 kbpd, due in backward 2019 for LLOG (after Chevron, Maersk and Repsol accept all pulled out as operator). At one time a large, stand-alone development accumulated with Moccasin (now alone as an alive lease) was expected. It is deep-water, aerial burden but uses riser abject gas lift, which suggests a bound reservoir, and allegedly fast abatement with burning drive.

Methane Emissions Reduction Opportunities during Natural Gas Production - offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

Methane Emissions Reduction Opportunities during Natural Gas Production – offshore oil and gas process flow diagram | offshore oil and gas process flow diagram

LLOG additionally appear tie-backs on a cardinal of added baby developments that are due in mid to backward 2018 (I don’t apperceive if these are academic FIDs yet, LLOG is a clandestine aggregation so doesn’t chase absolutely the aforementioned requirements as about listed ones, but these projects do accept added ally who would charge to agree): Clairborne, two wells angry to Coelacanth; Red Zinger, one able-bodied angry aback to Delta House; Crown and Anchor, two wells angry aback to Marlin; and La Femme / Blue Wing Olive (apparently a blazon of fly acclimated in fishing), three wells angry aback to Delta House. These will all be adequately baby flows, I’d assumption accretion about 45 to 60 kbpd nameplate and acceptable absolutely fast declining. All the wells to be angry aback accept already been accomplished as analysis or appraisal.

In agreement of net added assembly there is little or no added accommodation on Delta House (before the aperture it was at an boilerplate of 90 kbpd and ascent on a nameplate of 100, and it is advised with minimum on-line sparing so availability would be low), so the additions there betoken the absolute assembly is accepted to be declining: the sister platform, Who Dat, showed absolutely fast abatement afterwards three years, which is about how old the Delta House fields will be mid-2018. There is absolutely fast abatement on a brace of the fields on Marlin already, but there is absolute added capacity. Coelacanth is alone at 11 kbpd on a nameplate of 30 so there’s affluence of accommodation but I anticipate Claiborne is baby alike by contempo standards.

On the added hand, Anadarko, who had connected to be adequately alive in analysis and development offshore, accept signaled that they are activity to use their banknote breeze for allotment acknowledgment rather than gluttonous added advance (the Freeport MacMoran acquirement aftermost year may not be axis out to be such a abundant idea). With Anadarko acid aback LLOG is the best alive amateur for developments at the moment admitting the contempo aqueduct abortion and shut bottomward at the LLOG operated Delta House may adjournment things.In agreement of net added assembly there is little or no added accommodation on Delta House, so the additions there betoken the absolute assembly is accepted to be crumbling (the LLOG sister platform, Who Dat, showed absolutely fast abatement afterwards three years, which is about how old the Delta House fields will be mid-2018. There is absolutely fast abatement on a brace of the fields on Marlin already, but there is absolute added capacity. Coelacanth is alone at 11 kbpd on a nameplate of 30 so there’s affluence of accommodation but I anticipate Claiborne is baby alike by contempo standards.

With these announcements there are now alone bristles called apparent fields in the GoM that are not actuality produced or accept adequately close assembly plans, if not absolutely at FID yet – two baby ones apparent this year, the added three additionally adequately small. There are a few added acceptable discoveries that accept not been absolutely acquainted and some abortive leases absorbed to absolute fields.

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Shenzi (shown as the better ambassador of the complete fields in the blueprint above) is operated by BHP. Some activist investors there are aggravating to get the aggregation to cull out of oil and gas completely. Shenzi is not a archetypal asset to sell, as it’s a adequately aloft ambassador in mid-life. BHP is the fifth better ambassador in the Gulf.

Well Permits

As an indicator of longer-term assembly trends able-bodied admittance numbers appear afterwards charter bargain bids. Analysis wells announce accessible analysis ante and afterwards FIDs and development able-bodied numbers announce accepted assembly in the nearer term. BOEM has all-encompassing and up to date admittance records. The archive beneath appearance numbers from 2010, with the aperture in conduct afterward the Deepwater Horizon blow bright in each. They all appearance oil, gas or bang able-bodied numbers as I couldn’t acquisition anywhere that these are differentiated, about best will be accompanying to oil fields. For the aboriginal two archive I’ve alone included new wells and sidetracks – i.e. wells with anew articular targets – and afar amendments and bypass wells. The analysis numbers accommodate appraisement wells.

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Shallow analysis has appealing abundant accomplished now, and development wells are additionally tailing off, with contempo ones actuality sidetracks of earlier wells. Sidetracks beggarly able-bodied slots, and maybe wellheads, on beat wells can be reused for new targets after acute new accessories (I’d assumption there are now no chargeless able-bodied slots on any of the older, bank platforms).

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Deep baptize analysis and development numbers are additionally crumbling but almost slowly. However, with contempo low charter sales, a big bead in new projects advancing on band and some of these development wells actuality predrilled for the few advancing projects there could be a abrupt bead aing year (pace other influences, e.g. a abrupt amount acceleration ability alert added in-fill and analysis drilling).

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For all permits, including amendments, numbers are steadier but still bottomward slowly. Best of the activity is in the four-main abysmal baptize charter areas: MC, GC, GB and KC (see names above).

By George Kaplan via Aiguille Oil Barrel

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