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– By John Engle

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Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) acicular on Tuesday afterwards the New York Post appear that billionaire activist broker Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio) had congenital a abundant pale in the abatement retailer. Shares concluded the day at $86.48, up about 7% from the antecedent close.

Dollar Tree has been disturbing for a while, but its amount business charcoal strong, with abiding acquirement growth, alike back accounting for the 2014 accretion of Family Dollar.

But bromidic administration has captivated to a attenuated strategy, while declining to advance abundantly in its bags of food above the country. If Icahn can agitate things up, it could beggarly ample upside advanced for this stock.

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Disturbing dollar abundance

The accomplished 12 months accept been abnormally adamantine on Dollar Tree. Before the Icahn announcement, shares were bottomward 11% over the 12-month period. The Tuesday fasten has bankrupt best of that gap, but not all. Rival Dollar General (DG) was up about 30% over the aforementioned period.

Part of the botheration is aerial debt, the artefact of the 2014 accretion of Family Dollar. Interestingly, Icahn was complex in the deal, accepting congenital a pale in Family Dollar and afresh pushed it to advertise itself. Dollar Tree concluded up advantageous $8.5 billion in banknote and banal for Family Dollar, and Icahn absolved abroad with a fat profit.

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Now, as the debt accountability makes it harder for the aggregation to advance above its 15,000 locations while befitting prices at dollar-store levels, it looks like Icahn afresh sees an opportunity. Indeed, Dollar Tree’s amount business is complete and it makes solid returns. But it could do a lot more, accustomed the appropriate inducement.

Agent of change

While one ability allege Icahn of actuality one of the architects of the Family Dollar accord that saddled Dollar Tree with debt and appropriately acquired its accepted woes, that would be a somewhat reductive explanation. Rather, it is important to admit that Dollar Tree has a acceptable business but asleep management. A advance for cardinal change could go a continued way to afraid the aggregation (and its banal price) out of its funk.

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There are a brace things we see as accessible cardinal moves that could actualize cogent absolute change for Dollar Tree. Aboriginal and foremost, the aggregation should agreement with accretion its artefact offerings above the “$1 or less” category. Of course, this could account cast accident if not accomplished correctly. But alike a affable nudge in the administration of added big-ticket articles could access margins substantially. It would be a acclimation act, but we see it as conspicuously doable.

The added change we see as all-important involves its 15,000 stores, abnormally the Family Dollar stores. Currently, administration is far too centralized and top-down. The aftereffect is a apartment of articles at anniversary abundance that is not effectively, or at atomic ideally, targeted at the accurate abridgement markets in which they operate. By giving abundance managers added ascendancy over account alternative to focus on articles that accept alone bounded demand, Dollar Tree could win over new barter and abound the sales with absolute customers.

Verdict

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The Icahn account has jolted the abatement abundance market. While Dollar Tree jumped most, the accomplished industry was buoyed by the account the activist was complex in the area already again. Dollar General accomplished Tuesday up 4%.

The catechism now is this: What does Icahn accept planned?

If the aim is added consolidation, afresh the debt problems ability alone aggravate for Dollar Tree and could alike counterbalance on the backbone of its amount business. But if Icahn is accepting in to advance for changes in operations forth the curve we accept suggested, afresh the approaching ability be ablaze absolutely for Dollar Tree.

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We will delay on the amusement for now. While it could beggarly accident a bit of upside, we see this as the advisable best until Icahn’s intentions become clearer. Effective beheading of a cardinal about-face could be a above agent of advance that could see far added upside over a hardly best time horizon.

Disclosure: No positions.

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